Is US Headed for a Recession? Who Cares?

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By Rich Greifner

Is the United States headed for a recession? Yale professor Robert Shiller certainly thinks so. In a recent interview, Shiller told The Times that the American real estate sector has "trillions of dollars' worth of losses" yet to come, and it could plunge the U.S. into a "Japan-style slump."

But don't tell that to U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, who said that "the economy and the markets are strong enough to absorb" rising credit losses. He remains confident that the country will not slide into recession.

Then there's financial newsletter tracker Mark Hulbert, who concluded that "the odds had increased that we were already in a recession" -- and he wrote that in September!

The three wise men
When three experts offer three different opinions, it's difficult to know whom to trust. So here's my advice: Ignore them all.

Seriously, ignore them all
Suppose Shiller's correct, and the U.S. is headed for a recession. Or maybe Hulbert has it right, and we've been in a recession for months. Does it ultimately matter? Should you alter your stock selection process? Should you sell off your stock holdings in favor of government bonds?

Just what the heck is a recession, and what does it mean for stocks? The answers may surprise you.

What goes up must come down
A recession is the period between a peak of economic activity and a trough. Recessions typically last between six and 18 months, and they're a perfectly natural part of the business cycle. A recession does not mean that economic growth has stopped; it merely means that it has slowed down.

To determine whether the economy is in recession, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) analyzes changes in factors such as gross domestic product, personal income, employment, industrial production, and retail sales volume. There is no fixed rule for how the different indicators are weighed.

But there is a significant delay
It takes time for the NBER to collect and analyze this economic data. By the time it's determined that the country is in a recession, odds are that the economy is already close to recovering. For example, the last trough in economic activity occurred in November 2001 -- but the NBER didn't make that determination until July 2003. By that time, the economy had been improving for over a year and a half!

Wait, stocks can go up in a recession?
Since 1945, there have been 11 recessions lasting an average of 10 months each. But according to a recent article from Hulbert, during these recessions, the stock market actually rose seven times -- and the average market return during all 11 recessions was 3%!

Those who ignore the past ... continue....

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