Is It Time to Get Out?

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By Todd Wenning
The Indian stock market has had an impressive run over the past five years. Eaton Vance Greater India (ETGIX), for instance, posted a greater than 50% annualized return over this period, turning a $5,000 investment into some $38,000. Not too shabby.

Top holdings of the fund include Infosys Technologies and HDFC Bank (NYSE: HDB), as well as some companies that trade only on the Pink Sheets, like Bharat Heavy Electricals.

But are the good times coming to an end for Indian stocks?

The Economist seemed to think so back on Feb. 3, when it published an article noting that from an economic standpoint, India's "prices are rising fast, factories are at full capacity, [and] loans are piling up."

Those facts caused the publication to issue a warning: "If you're looking for a stock market bubble, Indian share prices have risen more than fourfold over the past four years, far more than in China. If something is not done, then a hard landing will become inevitable."

Since The Economist's article ran, India's BSE Sensex index has been quite volatile -- at one point in July it was up 10%, then it dropped 8% in one week in October. And despite the recent 5% drop since Dec. 13, the BSE is still up nearly 33% since February, meaning the "hard landing" the article described as "inevitable" is yet to occur.

Over the past eight months, Indian inflation has somewhat come under control, recently hitting a five-year low of 3.06%. Moreover, a September OECD report stated that the Indian government's GDP growth target of 10% in 2011 is achievable if market-based reforms continue.

What this means for you
Even if you don't believe what The Economist's article said about India, it might be a good time to look closely at any Indian stocks you own, just to make sure they're reasonably valued.

Why? For one thing, The Economist was pretty much spot-on when its April 13, 2000, issue called the growth projections of the American economy "rosy" and said if actual growth fell short, it might be "brutal" for Wall Street. As we all know, economic growth did, indeed, miss expectations, and investors were punished harshly -- especially in the new-economy sector of technology.

In 2001 alone, many of the overheated U.S. tech darlings came crashing down. The Nasdaq 100 dropped 31%, along with names such as BEA Systems (Nasdaq: BEAS), Paychex (Nasdaq: PAYX), and Monster Worldwide (Nasdaq: MNST).

Avoid the hype
The Indian stock market could very well keep growing for years to come, as the government and corporations build better infrastructures to support the rapidly growing economy.

But if you're thinking about putting more money into international stocks in the near future, it may be prudent to look in undervalued markets. And, yes, there are still some out there.

Taiwan, for instance, is one market that our Motley Fool Global Gains team has earmarked as generally undervalued. In fact, Fool advisor Bill Mann recommended a Taiwanese company for Global Gains subscribers in January that is now up 108% in a little less than a year.

Souce: http://www.fool.com/investing/international/2007/12/27/is-it-time-to-get-out.aspx

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