Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Toronto Stock Exchange Companies
Toronto Stock Exchange Listed Companies (A-List)
Name ........................................Symbol........... Exchange
Name ........................................Symbol........... Exchange
| A&W Revenue Royalties Income Fund | ||
|---|---|---|
| A&W Revenue Rylty Un | AW.UN | T |
| Aastra Technologies Limited | ||
| Aastra Technologies | AAH | T |
| Aberdeen Asia-Pacific Income Investment Company Limited | ||
| Aberdeen Asia-Pacifc | FAP | T |
| Aberdeen G7 Trust | ||
| Aberdeen G7 Trust Un | GSV.UN | T |
| Aberdeen International Inc. | ||
| Aberdeen Intl. J | AAB | T |
| Aberdeen Intl. Wt J | AAB.WT | T |
| Aberdeen SCOTS Trust | ||
| Aberdeen SCOTS Tr Un | SCO.UN | T |
| AbitibiBowater Canada Inc. | ||
| AbitibiBowtr CdaExch | AXB | T |
| AbitibiBowater Inc. | ||
| AbitibiBowater Inc. | ABH | T |
| Absolute Software Corporation | ||
| Absolute Software J | ABT | T |
| Acadian Mining Corporation | ||
| Acadian Mng Corp. J | ADA | T |
| Acadian Timber Income Fund | ||
|---|---|---|
| Acadian Timber Un | ADN.UN | T |
| Accord Financial Corp. | ||
| Accord Financial | ACD | T |
| Accrete Energy Inc. | ||
| Accrete Energy Inc J | GZ | T |
| ACE Aviation Holdings Inc. | ||
| ACE Aviation Hldg VV | ACE.A | T |
| ACE Aviation Hldg V | ACE.B | T |
| ACE Aviation 4.25%Nt | ACE.NT.A | T |
| ACTIVEnergy Income Fund | ||
| ACTIVEnergy Incm Un | AEU.UN | T |
| Acuity Focused Total Return Trust | ||
| Acuity Focus Totl Un | AFU.UN | T |
| Acuity Growth & Income Trust | ||
| Acuity Growth Tr Un | AIG.UN | T |
| Acuity Small Cap Corporation | ||
| Acuity Small Cap A | ASF | T |
| Acuity Small Cap Wt | ASF.WT | T |
| Adaltis Inc. | ||
| Adaltis Inc. | ADS | T |
| Adanac Molybdenum Corporation | ||
| Adanac Molybdenum J | AUA | T |
| Addax Petroleum Corporation | ||
|---|---|---|
| Addax Petroleum Corp | AXC | T |
| Addenda Capital Inc. | ||
| Addenda Capital Inc. | ADV | T |
| Adeptron Technologies Corporation | ||
| Adeptron Tech Corp J | ATQ | T |
| ADF Group Inc. | ||
| ADF Group Inc. SV | DRX | T |
| Adherex Technologies Inc. | ||
| Adherex Technology J | AHX | T |
| Adjustable Rate MBS Trust | ||
| Adjustable Rt MBS Un | ADJ.UN | T |
| ADS Inc. | ||
| ADS Inc. CL A MV | AAL.A | T |
| Advantage Energy Income Fund | ||
| Advantage Engy 9% Db | AVN.DB.A | T |
| Advantage 8.25% Deb | AVN.DB.B | T |
| Advantage 7.50% Deb | AVN.DB.C | T |
| Advantage 7.75% Deb | AVN.DB.D | T |
| Advantage 6.50% Deb | AVN.DB.E | T |
| Advantage 8.75% Deb | AVN.DB.F | T |
| Advantage Engy 8% Db | AVN.DB.G | T |
| Advantage Energy Un | AVN.UN | T |
| Advantaged Preferred Share Trust | ||
| Advantged Prefer Un | PFR.UN | T |
| Advantex Marketing International Inc. | ||
| Advantex Mktg Intl J | ADX | T |
| Aecon Group Inc. | ||
|---|---|---|
| Aecon Group Inc. | ARE | T |
| Aeroplan Income Fund | ||
| Aeroplan Income Un | AER.UN | T |
| AEterna Zentaris Inc. | ||
| AEterna Zentaris Inc | AEZ | T |
| African Copper PLC | ||
| African Copper PLC J | ACU | T |
| Africo Resources Ltd. | ||
| Africo Resources J | ARL | T |
| Ag Growth Income Fund | ||
| Ag Growth Income Un | AFN.UN | T |
| AGF Management Limited | ||
| AGF Management B NV | AGF.B | T |
| AGF Master Limited Partnership | ||
| AGF Master LP Un | AFP.UN | T |
| Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. | ||
| Agnico-Eagle Mines | AEM | T |
| Agrium Inc. | ||
| Agrium Inc. | AGU | T |
| AIC Diversified Canada Split Corp. | ||
|---|---|---|
| AIC Diversified Cap | ADC | T |
| AIC Diversified Pr | ADC.PR.A | T |
| AIC Global Financial Split Corp. | ||
| AIC Global Fin Cl A | ASC | T |
| AIC Global Fin Pr | ASC.PR.A | T |
| Ainsworth Lumber Co. Ltd. | ||
| Ainsworth Lumber Co | ANS | T |
| Air Canada | ||
| Air Canada Cl A VV | AC.A | T |
| Air Canada Cl B | AC.B | T |
| AirBoss of America Corp. | ||
| Airboss of America J | BOS | T |
| AirIQ Inc. | ||
| AirIQ Inc. J | IQ | T |
| Akela Pharma Inc. | ||
| Akela Pharma Inc. J | AKL | T |
| Akita Drilling Ltd. | ||
| Akita Drill Cl A NV | AKT.A | T |
| Akita Drilling Cl B | AKT.B | T |
| Alamos Gold Inc. | ||
| Alamos Gold Inc. J | AGI | T |
| Alamos Gold Deb J | AGI.DB | T |
| AlarmForce Industries Inc. | ||
| AlarmForce Ind J | AF | T |
| Alberta Clipper Energy Inc. | ||
|---|---|---|
| Alberta Clipper Engy | ACN | T |
| Alexco Resource Corp. | ||
| Alexco Resource J | AXR | T |
| Alexis Minerals Corporation | ||
| Alexis Minerals J | AMC | T |
| Algo Group Inc. | ||
| Algo Group Inc. | AO | T |
| Algo Group 3rd Pr 1 | AO.PR.A | T |
| Algo Grp 6% 2nd Pr 1 | AO.PR.B | T |
| Algoma Central Corporation | ||
| Algoma Central Corp | ALC | T |
| Algonquin Power Income Fund | ||
| Algonquin Pwr 6.65Db | APF.DB | T |
| Algonquin Pwr 6.2%Db | APF.DB.A | T |
| Algonquin Power Un | APF.UN | T |
| Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. | ||
| Alimentation Cl A MV | ATD.A | T |
| Alimentation Cl B SV | ATD.B | T |
| Allbanc Split Corp. | ||
| Allbanc Split A Cap | ABK.A | T |
| Allbanc Split Pr A | ABK.PR.C | T |
| Allbanc Split Corp. II | ||
| Allbanc Splt 2 Cap A | ALB | T |
| Allbanc Splt 2 Pr A | ALB.PR.A | T |
| Allen-Vanguard Corporation | ||
| Allen-Vanguard J | VRS | T |
| Alliance Split Income Trust | ||
|---|---|---|
| Alliance Splt Pr Sec | ASI.PR.A | T |
| Alliance Split Tr Un | ASI.UN | T |
| Allied Nevada Gold Corp. | ||
| Allied Nevada Gold J | ANV | T |
| Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust | ||
| Allied Prop. REIT Un | AP.UN | T |
| Allon Therapeutics Inc. | ||
| Allon Therapeutics J | NPC | T |
| Almaden Minerals Ltd. | ||
| Almaden Minerals | AMM | T |
| AltaGas Income Trust | ||
| AltaGas Income Tr Un | ALA.UN | T |
| AltaGas Utility Group Inc. | ||
| AltaGas Utility Grp | AUI | T |
| Altius Minerals Corporation | ||
| Altius Minerals Corp | ALS | T |
| Altus Group Income Fund | ||
| Altus Group Incm Un | AIF.UN | T |
| Amalgamated Income Limited Partnership | ||
| Amalgamated LP Un J | AI.UN | T |
| Ambrilia Biopharma Inc. | ||
|---|---|---|
| Ambrilia Biopharma J | AMB | T |
| American Bonanza Gold Corp. | ||
| American Bonanza J | BZA | T |
| Amerigo Resources Ltd. | ||
| Amerigo Resources J | ARG | T |
| Amica Mature Lifestyles Inc./Style de Vie Amica Inc. | ||
| Amica Mature Lfstyle | ACC | T |
| Amisco Industries Ltd. | ||
| Amisco Industries | IAC | T |
| Amorfix Life Sciences Ltd. | ||
| Amorfix Life J | AMF | T |
| Anaconda Mining Inc. | ||
| Anaconda Mining J | ANX | T |
| Anatolia Minerals Development Limited | ||
| Anatolia Minerals J | ANO | T |
| Anatolia Min Deb J | ANO.DB | T |
| Andean Resources Limited | ||
| Andean Res Ltd Ord J | AND | T |
| Anderson Energy Ltd. | ||
| Anderson Energy Ltd. | AXL | T |
| Andrew Peller Limited/Andrew Peller Limitee | ||
|---|---|---|
| Andrew Peller A NV | ADW.A | T |
| Andrew Peller Ltd. B | ADW.B | T |
| Angiotech Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | ||
| Angiotech Pharma | ANP | T |
| Antrim Energy Inc. | ||
| Antrim Energy Inc. J | AEN | T |
| Anvil Mining Limited | ||
| Anvil Mining Ltd. | AVM | T |
| Apollo Gold Corporation | ||
| Apollo Gold Corp. | APG | T |
| Aquila Resources Inc. | ||
| Aquila Resources J | AQA | T |
| Aquiline Resources Inc. | ||
| Aquiline Resources J | AQI | T |
| Arawak Energy Corporation | ||
| Arawak Energy Corp | ABG | T |
| Arbor Memorial Services Inc. | ||
| Arbor Memorial Cl A | ABO.A | T |
| Arbor Memorial Cl B | ABO.B | T |
| ARC Energy Trust | ||
| ARC Energy Trust Un | AET.UN | T |
| ARC Resources Ltd. | ||
|---|---|---|
| ARC Resources Exchg | ARX | T |
| Arctic Glacier Income Fund | ||
| Arctic Glacier Deb | AG.DB | T |
| Arctic Glacier Tr Un | AG.UN | T |
| Arehada Mining Limited | ||
| Arehada Mining Ltd J | AHD | T |
| Argus Corporation Limited | ||
| Argus $2.50 Pr A | AR.PR.A | T |
| Argus Cl B Pr | AR.PR.B | T |
| Argus $2.60 Pr A | AR.PR.D | T |
| ARISE Technologies Corporation | ||
| ARISE Technologies J | APV | T |
| ARIUS Research Inc. | ||
| ARIUS Research Inc J | ARI | T |
| Armistice Resources Corp. | ||
| Armistice Resource J | AZ | T |
| Armtec Infrastructure Income Fund | ||
| Armtec Infrast. Un | ARF.UN | T |
| Arsenal Energy Inc. | ||
| Arsenal Energy Inc J | AEI | T |
| ART Advanced Research Technologies Inc. | ||
| ART Advanced Rsch J | ARA | T |
| ART Advanced Pr 1 J | ARA.PR.A | T |
| ART Advanced Pr 2 J | ARA.PR.B | T |
| Art In Motion Income Fund | ||
|---|---|---|
| Art Motion Incm Un | AIM.UN | T |
| Artis Real Estate Investment Trust | ||
| Artis REIT A Deb | AX.DB.A | T |
| Artis REIT B Deb | AX.DB.B | T |
| Artis REIT C Deb | AX.DB.C | T |
| Artis REIT Un | AX.UN | T |
| Asbestos Corporation Limited | ||
| Asbestos Corp. Ltd. | AB | T |
| Ascalade Communications Inc. | ||
| Ascalade Commun Inc. | ACG | T |
| Ascendant Copper Corporation | ||
| Ascendant Copper J | ACX | T |
| Ascendnt Copper Wt J | ACX.WT | T |
| Ascendnt Coppr A WtJ | ACX.WT.A | T |
| Aspen Group Resources Corporation | ||
| Aspen Group Res J | ASR | T |
| Astral Media Inc. | ||
| Astral Media Cl A NV | ACM.A | T |
| Astral Media Cl B SV | ACM.B | T |
| Atco Ltd. | ||
| Atco Ltd. 5.75% Pr 3 | ACO.PR.A | T |
| Atco Ltd. Cl I NV | ACO.X | T |
| Atco Ltd. Cl II | ACO.Y | T |
| Athabasca Potash Inc. | ||
| Athabasca Potash J | API | T |
| Atlanta Gold Inc. | ||
| Atlanta Gold Inc. J | ATG | T |
| Atlantic Power Corporation | ||
|---|---|---|
| Atlantic Power | ATP | T |
| Atlantic Pwr 6.25 Db | ATP.DB | T |
| Atlantic Power IPSs | ATP.UN | T |
| Atlantis Systems Corp. | ||
| Atlantis Systems | AIQ | T |
| Atna Resources Ltd. | ||
| Atna Resources J | ATN | T |
| Atrium Innovations Inc. | ||
| Atrium Innovations | ATB | T |
| ATS Andlauer Income Fund | ||
| ATS Andlauer Incm Un | ATS.UN | T |
| ATS Automation Tooling Systems Inc. | ||
| ATS Automation Tool | ATA | T |
| Augusta Resource Corporation | ||
| Augusta Resource J | AZC | T |
| Aura Minerals Inc. | ||
| Aura Minerals Inc. J | ORA | T |
| Aurelian Resources Inc. | ||
| Aurelian Resources J | ARU | T |
| Aurizon Mines Ltd. | ||
| Aurizon Mines J | ARZ | T |
| Aurora Energy Resources Inc. | ||
|---|---|---|
| Aurora Energy Res J | AXU | T |
| Australian Solomons Gold Limited | ||
| Australian Solomon J | SGA | T |
| Australian Solomn Wt | SGA.WT | T |
| AutoCanada Income Fund | ||
| AutoCanada Income Un | ACQ.UN | T |
| Automodular Corporation | ||
| Automodular Corp | AM | T |
| Avcorp Industries Inc. | ||
| Avcorp Industries | AVP | T |
| Avenir Diversified Income Trust | ||
| Avenir Divers Tr Un | AVF.UN | T |
| Avery Resources Inc. | ||
| Avery Resources J | ARY | T |
| Avnel Gold Mining Limited | ||
| Avnel Gold Mining J | AVK | T |
| Avnel Gold Mng Wt J | AVK.WT | T |
| Axcan Pharma Inc. | ||
| Axcan Pharma Inc. | AXP | T |
| Axia NetMedia Corporation | ||
| AXIA NetMedia CORP J | AXX | T |
| AZCAR Technologies Incorporated | ||
|---|---|---|
| AZCAR Technologies | AZZ | T |
| Azure Dynamics Corporation | ||
| Azure Dynamics J | AZD | T |
Toronto Stock Exchange Trading Hours
Toronto Stock Exchange have trading hours of 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, Monday to Friday.
There is also an extended session from 4:10 to 5:00 p.m. ET each trading day.
Toronto Stock Exchange Holiday Schedule 2008
Toronto Stock Exchange Holiday Schedule 2008
New Year's Day January 1, 2008
Family DayFebruary 18, 2008
Good Friday March 21, 2008
Victoria Day May 19, 2008
Canada Day July 1, 2008
Civic Day August 4, 2008
Labour Day September 1, 2008
Thanksgiving Day October 13, 2008
Christmas Day December 25, 2008
Boxing Day December 26, 2008
Toronto Stock Exchange Holidays
Toronto Stock Exchange Holiday Schedule 2007
New Year's Day January 1, 2007
Good Friday April 6, 2007
Victoria Day May 21, 2007
Canada Day July 2, 2007
Civic Day August 6, 2007
Labour Day September 3, 2007
Thanksgiving Day October 8, 2007
Christmas Day December 25, 2007
Boxing Day December 26, 2007
Toronto Stock Exchange Holiday Schedule 2008
New Year's Day January 1, 2008
Family DayFebruary 18, 2008
Good Friday March 21, 2008
Victoria Day May 19, 2008
Canada Day July 1, 2008
Civic Day August 4, 2008
Labour Day September 1, 2008
Thanksgiving Day October 13, 2008
Christmas Day December 25, 2008
Boxing Day December 26, 2008
What Time Does the Toronto Stock Exchange Open
The Toronto Stock Exchange Opens at 9:30 a.m ET Monday to Friday
Toronto Stock Exchange Hours
TSE Trading Hours:
Toronto Stock Exchange have trading hours of 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, Monday to Friday. There is also an extended session for Participating Organizations and Member Firms that extend from 4:10 to 5:00 p.m. ET each trading day.
History of the Toronto Stock Exchange?
The Toronto Stock Exchange has descended from an Association of Brokers group formed by Toronto businessmen on July 26, 1852. Twenty-four men gathered at the Masonic Hall to officially create the Toronto Stock Exchange On October 25, 1861. The exchange was then formally incorporated by an act of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario in 1878.
The TSE grew continuously except for a three month period in 1914 when the exchange was shut down for fear of financial panic due to World War I. In 1934, the Toronto Stock Exchange was merged with its key competitor the Standard Stock and Mining Exchange. The merged markets decided to keep the name Toronto Stock Exchange. In 1977, the TSX introduced CATS (Computer Assisted Trading System).
On April 23rd, 1997, the TSX's trading floor closed, thus making it the second-largest stock exchange in North America to choose a floorless, electronic (virtual trading) environment.
Through a realignment plan, Toronto Stock Exchange became Canada's sole exchange for trading of senior equities. The Bourse de Montréal/Montreal Exchange gained responsibility for the trading of derivatives and the Vancouver Stock Exchange and Alberta Stock Exchange merged to form the Canadian Venture Exchange (CDNX) to handle trading in junior equities. The Canadian Dealing Network, Winnipeg Stock Exchange, and equities portion of the Montreal Exchange later merged with CDNX.
In 2000, the Toronto Stock Exchange became a for-profit company. Then in 2001, the Toronto Stock Exchange acquired the Canadian Venture Exchange, which was renamed to TSX Venture Exchange in 2002.
Sunday, January 27, 2008
India market slide hits newbie investors
by MATTHEW ROSENBERG
NEW DELHI - Maybe Dipanker Gupta should have listened to his wife.
"She kept bothering me. 'Get out, you have made the money you need,' was all she would say to me," said the 46-year-old accountant, who made his first foray into the stock market about a year ago, pouring in his life savings to catch what may have been the tail end of India's bull run.
"I didn't listen," he said, shaking his head and throwing up his hands.
Gupta is not alone. Millions of other first-time investors like him are getting a taste of one of the down sides of capitalism: markets also drop.
Last year, the Indian market's benchmark stock index, the Sensex, soared 47 percent, in the process drawing new investors to the world of stocks and bonds _ many with little or no experience in financial markets.
But since the start of the year, the index has been highly volatile.
On Tuesday, the market sank so fast when it opened that the Bombay Stock Exchange automatically shut down for an hour. By the end of trading, the index had dropped a stunning 12 percent in just two days. It has since regained a big chunk of those losses, but remains down for the year.
There are only an estimated 5.8 million individual investors in India, a country of 1.1 billion, so there's little fear that the country's booming economy _ forecast to grow more than 8 percent this year _ will suffer if they scale back their spending.
But their losses are a psychological blow to the aspirations of India's new middle class, analysts say.
"People thought you could only make money. Even those people who were not in the market were talking about getting in the market," said Dhirendra Kumar of Value Research in New Delhi. "Most of them did not understand how the market works _ that you can lose money instead of making money."
India's markets have climbed dramatically in the past four years, a rise that coincided with the equally dramatic expansion of India's middle class as the country's once-socialist economy took off. Millions of people found themselves flush with cash and eager to get into the market.
While exact figures aren't available, the number of special deposit accounts Indians need to buy shares, which economists say is a reliable measure of how many people are investing, has more than doubled in five years. According to the largest deposit company, National Securities Depository Ltd., its accounts have jumped from about 3.8 million in April 2003 to 8.8 million at the start of this year.
More than half of those accounts are held by individual investors, and most largely enjoyed only success since making their first foray into the market. The Sensex climbed from about 2,000 points in April 2003 to more than 20,000 at the start of this year before it started falling.
While in the past there were bumps along the way _ corrections that tracked the ups-and-downs in bigger markets in Asia and the West _ "I always recovered," said Gupta.
Now he's not sure. While the Sensex has rebounded some and most of the shares he owns are still up from when he bought them, the index is down about 12 percent from where it was two weeks ago and his gains are far lower than what they were. On Friday afternoon, the index was up 6.6 percent to 18,361.66 points.
"Maybe now I should sell what I can," he said. His investment of about Indian rupees 200,000 $5,100 _ his entire life-savings _ is still intact.
But the new kitchen his wife wanted? "I don't have the money."
The new car? "No, not this year."
Still, the prospect of big returns is hard to ignore _ even for those who were indeed trapped by their losses at the start of the week.
On Tuesday, Arun Purohit was wondering how he was going to repay the friends and relatives from whom he borrowed Indian rupees $2,500 to invest, most of which had been lost as the market fell for seven straight days.
"I hoped the money would double. My life has been spoiled. What will I say to the people who lent it to me?" he said, idling on the street outside the Bombay Stock Exchange. Unshaven and disheveled, he looked like a man in serious trouble.
But by late Wednesday, when the market rebounded, the 38-year-old grocery shop owner was back in. Clean shaven and wearing a neatly pressed cream shirt and black trousers, he'd sold about half his stake and covered most of his losses.
"Now that the market has gone back up, I'm hoping to make a profit," he said.
Source: CNBC.com
Is the US Just Talking Itself Into a Recession?
By Albert Bozzo
Talk may be cheap, but the endless chatter about a looming recession may wind up being very costly to the US economy.
As Wall Street and Washington fret over what measures are needed to combat an economic downturn, there’s another debate brewing about whether the nation is talking itself into a recession when one neither exists at the moment nor is a foregone conclusion in the future.
"We're over-reacting to the recession word," Dow Chemical Chairman and CEO Andrew Liveris told CNBC. "Lots of people get together and talk to each other and people believe the psychology."
Adds Liveris: "I noticed there’s a few CEOS who feel the way I do."
And a few economists and money managers, as well.
"It feeds on itself," says Jim Awad, chairman of JW Stewart Asset Management. "You can’t go home every night and hear this and then go out and hire someone or buy a car."
The current recession-mongering--as some might call it-- has picked up in the past two weeks.
Among the recent events: a recurring sell-off in global stock markets, the rush in Washington to draft and pass a fiscal stimulus package, the Federal Reserve’s surprise decision to slash interest rates and the media’s obsession with the slumping economy at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland.
Recession, in fact, was on the official agenda at Davos this week, giving the media a captive audience-- or it is prey-- to discuss the subject.
"The economy is still sorting itself through," Liveris told CNBC -- at Davos no less. "I wouldn’t do the 'Chicken Little' thing."
It may already be too late -- for Wonder Dog or Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, for that matter.
Two big Wall Street firms began predicting a recession three weeks ago when government data showed the unemployment rate jumped to 5 percent in December. That rang recession alarms because the increase put the rate more than five-tenths above its low of the current economic cycle, which has traditionally served as the dividing line between growth and contraction. The Fed typically pays close attention to that recession barometer.
Subsequent government data has challenged – if not refuted -- that argument. Initial jobless claims this past week, for instance, showed that job losses were far below recession levels.
"If the job market remains as vibrant as the most recent data indicate, fears of recession will recede quickly, " said Nomura International chief economist David Resler, who has yet to be convinced a recession is underway or imminent.
Either is Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ economist Christopher Rupkey, who muses, "Merely the Fed saying ‘downside risks’ is almost a self-fulfilling prophecy."
Or at least food for thought. Take the case of Caterpillar, which announced record profit for 2007 on Friday. Though the company stopped short of forecasting a recession in the press release accompanying its financial statement, Caterpillar at various points implied or speculated on the occurrence.
Caterpillar also referred to recent statements by the Fed. "The Fed recently indicated that a weakening economy is more of a threat than inflation and that it prepared to move aggressively on interest rates," the release stated.
The company also said; "We forecast the economy will grow 1 percent in 2008, slow enough that the National Bureau of Economic Research may eventually decide that a recession occurred."
Don’t look for any helpful guidance on the current situation there. The National Bureau of Economic Research, considered the official arbiter of when recessions begin and end, has been known to determine the actual beginning of a recession at a time when history laters show that the recession was ending or in fact over.
In the case of the last recession in 2001, the organization declared in November of that year that the recession began in March. It would later turn out that the recession ended in November.
The difference this time around may be Wall Street’s closeness to the economy’s problems. In addition to what appears to be a traditional cyclical slowdown, where both consumer and industrial demand slow, current conditions have a lot to do with the so-called credit crunch, which is something of the evil twin of the housing contraction.
There’s reason to believe that if Wall Street is feeling the pain, you will hear its cries --
about the specter of recession or the urgent need for interest rate cuts
"I think it right to say a lot of the current anxiety and uncertainty is coming from Wall Street rather Main Street and it is not always that way," observes William Silber, an economic historian and professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business.
Silber, however, says he’s "not aware of any evidence" that recession talk begets a recession, but he also isn’t convinced about the likelihood of a textbook recession on the horizon.
"What the Fed says certainly influences people’s behavior but what the Fed does influences people even more," says Silber.
Wall Street’s pain – or its dread of recession – has yet to be matched on Main Street, unless you live in a city with a high rates of foreclosures.
We're probably a few months away from consumers being afraid of a recession," says Rupkey. "People don't really feel it until job losses hit a certain level and some of your neighbors lose their jobs." He notes the jobless rate peaked at 6.3 percent in the last recession.
Rupkey, Silber and more than a few other economists aren’t convinced that the Fed’s policy responses are the right medicine.
A credit crunch and the popping of an asset bubble are not necessarily corrected through liquidity, economists say. If things (house prices, securitized debt, mortgages) are over-valued lower interest rates may not be able to fix that quickly enough.
Peter Thiel, cofounder of PayPal and president of Clarium Capital Management told CNBC: "All the actions suggest an approach which got us into the mess in the first place. It’s a sign policy makers at this point are actually scared for the first time. There's a sense something is broken down and I think they still don't understand the scale of the problem."
Calling it a recession – never mind declaring one prematurely – is probably another symptom of that.
Source: CNBC.com
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